Table 3 Effects of time varying obesity phenotypes and baseline covariates on the incidence of CVD among males using the joint modelling approach

Education (Reference: illiterate)

Literate

-0.36 (0.11)

0.69 (0.56 to 0.87)

0.002

-

-

-

Smoking status (Reference: Never smoker)

Past smoker

0.38 (0.10)

1.46 (1.18 to 1.80)

<0.001

-0.49 (0.21)

0.61 (0.39 to 0.95)

0.02

Current smoker

0.32 (0.13)

1.37 (1.07 to 1.80)

0.01

-1.33 (0.18)

0.26 (0.18 to 0.37)

<0.001

Physical activity (Reference: Highest)

Lowest

-0.15 (0.08)

0.86 (0.72 to 1.01)

0.07

0.42 (0.17)

1.52 (1.06 to 2.05)

0.02

Family history of diabetes (Reference: No)

Yes

-0.28 (0.12)

0.75 (0.58 to 0.95)

0.01

1.23 (0.20)

3.42 (2.36 to 5.25)

<0.001

Family history of CVD (Reference: No)

Yes

0.10 (0.11)

1.10 (0.89 to 1.37)

0.35

0.04 (0.23)

1.04 (0.67 to 1.63)

0.87

Obesity phenotypes (Reference: Normal)

Abnormal

0.05 (0.17)

1.05 (0.76 to 1.49)

0.76

-

-

-

Age (year)

-0.13 (0.26)

0.87 (0.49 to 1.29)

0.63

0.05 (0.004)

1.05 (1.04 to 1.06)

<0.001

The associations of study variables with incidence of CVD among females using survival and longitudinal models

Female (3458)

CVD from Bayesian Cox model

Obesity varying from Bayesian logit mixed effects model

Variables

HR (95% CI)

P-value

OR (95% CI)

P-value

Education (Reference: illiterate)

Literate

0.78 (0.64 to 0.94)

0.009

-

-

Smoking status (Reference: Never smoker)

Past smoker

1.80 (1.22 to 2.66)

0.002

1.27 (0.28 to 5.58)

0.75

Current smoker

0.97 (0.54 to 1.72)

0.92

0.43 (0.17 to 1.08)

0.07

Physical activity (Reference: Highest)

Lowest

1.08 (0.92 to 1.27)

0.29

1.05 (0.70 to 1.55)

0.80

Family history of diabetes (Reference: No)

Yes

1.51 (1.29 to 1.77)

<0.001

1.67 (1.06 to 2.63)

0.02

Family history of CVD (Reference: No)

Yes

1.42 (1.18 to 1.71)

<0.001

1.84 (0.99 to 3.45)

0.05

Obesity phenotypes (Reference: Normal)

Abnormal

2.29 (1.48 to 3.54)

<0.001

-

-

Age (year)

1.05 (1.05 to 1.06)

<0.001

1.13 (1.12 to 1.15)

<0.001