The effect of the universal two-child policy on medical insurance funds with a rapidly ageing population: evidence from China’s urban and rural residents’ medical insurance

Table 2 Operation of China’s URRBMI fund under the strict one-child policy

Year	Fund income (Billion)	Fund expenditure (Billion)	Current balance (Billion)	Accumulated balance (Billion)	Accumulated balance rate (%)
2021	1067.362	1067.839	−0.478	527.463	49.42
2022	1168.377	1191.951	−23.573	509.692	43.62
2023	1277.936	1326.617	−48.680	466.618	36.51
2024	1397.312	1478.187	−80.875	390.876	27.97
2025	1527.287	1642.343	− 115.056	280.120	18.34
2030	2371.367	2820.293	− 448.926	−1194.312	−50.36
2035	3488.818	4573.730	− 1084.912	− 5184.605	− 148.61
2040	5077.579	7239.499	− 2161.920	−13,640.709	− 268.65
2045	6965.448	10,723.183	− 3757.736	−28,973.696	− 415.96
2050	9439.809	15,520.955	− 6081.146	−54,369.347	−575.96

Note: (a) Due to space limitations, this study only reports the simulation results of some years in the table, and the same applies below. (b) When the current balance or accumulated balance becomes negative, it means that the URRBMI fund has a current deficit or an accumulated deficit; that is, the fund has a payment risk (accumulated balance rate = accumulated balance/current URRBMI funds income * 100%)
Source: The author of this manuscript calculated the data based on the collected data and actuarial models

ISSN: 1471-2458