Table 1 Fixed-effect negative binomial models for association between malaria incidence and Bolsa Família coverage, Brazil 2004–2015

Municipal human development index

0.000 (0.0001–0.0002)

–

Hospital beds density

0.958 (0.9292–0.9888)

–

Ratio of average income of the richest 20% to the poorest 40%

1.000 (1.0004–1.0010)

–

Ratio between population living in rural and urban areas

1.147 (1.1329–1.1612)

–

Proportion of indigenous population

1.034 (1.0318–1.0375)

–

Proportion of persons employed in the mineral extraction sector aged 18 years or over

1.03 (1.0141–1.0458)

–

BFP municipal coverage (%, 0–100)

0.987 (0.9852–0.9885)

0.997 (0.9948–0.9988)

Logarithm of gross domestic product (BRZ, prices 2015)^a

0.479 (0.4653–0.495)

0.628 (0.6019–0.6556)

Proportion of young adult men^b

0.892 (0.8830–0.902)

1.057 (1.0476–1.0673)

Proportion of beneficiaries of health insurance plans (%, 0–100)

0.903 (0.8957–0.9098)

1.01 (1.0026–1.0175)

Population density (number of people/km ²)

0.997 (0.9966–0.9973)

0.9989 (0.9986–0.9992)

Annual increase in deforestation (Km²)

1.002 (1.0022–1.0026)

1.000 (1.0001–1.0007)

FHP municipal coverage (%, 0–100)

1.012 (1.011–1.0141)

0.9976 (0.9961–0.9992)

Unemployment rate among people aged 18 and over (%)

1.02 (1.0318–1.0482)

0.9755 (0.9661–0.9851)

GINI index (0–100)

1.048 (1.0426–1.0531)

1.0280 (1.0220–1.0340)

Year

–

0.85 (0.8409–0.8595)

Number of observations

8544

7729

Number of municipalities

712

670