Table 3 Multiplicative model of seasonal variation in the number of suspected cases of measles in Bauchi State, 2013–2018
From: Descriptive epidemiology of measles cases in Bauchi State, 2013–2018
Year | Quarter | Quarterly number of cases (yt) | 3 Months Moving Total | 3 Months Moving Average (Tt) | Seasonal Variation (yt/Tt) × 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | 1 | 730 | |||
2 | 575 | 1320 | 440.00 | 130.68 | |
3 | 15 | 596 | 198.67 | 7.55 | |
4 | 6 | 561 | 187.00 | 3.21 | |
2014 | 1 | 540 | 616 | 205.33 | 262.99 |
2 | 70 | 613 | 204.33 | 34.26 | |
3 | 3 | 82 | 27.33 | 10.98 | |
4 | 9 | 900 | 300.00 | 3.00 | |
2015 | 1 | 888 | 1344 | 448.00 | 198.21 |
2 | 447 | 1532 | 510.67 | 87.53 | |
3 | 197 | 756 | 252.00 | 78.17 | |
4 | 112 | 917 | 305.67 | 36.64 | |
2016 | 1 | 608 | 760 | 253.33 | 240.00 |
2 | 40 | 656 | 218.67 | 18.29 | |
3 | 8 | 60 | 20.00 | 40.00 | |
4 | 12 | 453 | 151.00 | 7.95 | |
2017 | 1 | 433 | 487 | 162.33 | 266.74 |
2 | 42 | 504 | 168.00 | 25.00 | |
3 | 29 | 103 | 34.33 | 84.47 | |
4 | 32 | 121 | 40.33 | 79.34 | |
2018 | 1 | 60 | 172 | 57.33 | 104.65 |
2 | 80 | 140 | 46.67 | 171.43 | |
3 | 0 | 80 | 26.67 | 0.00 | |
4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |