Table 2 Past and future age-specific breast cancer incidence rate estimates (2004–2025)
Age-groups (in years) | Observed Incidence Rates (2004–2015) | Functional Time Series Model | Log-Linear Regression Model | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004–2005 | 2006–2007 | 2008–2009 | 2010–2011 | 2012–2013 | 2014–2015 | 2016–2017 | 2018–2019 | 2020–2021 | 2022–2023 | 2024–2025 | 2016–2017 | 2018–2019 | 2020–2021 | 2022–2023 | 2024–2025 | |
15–19 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
20–24 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.6 |
25–29 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 13.9 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 15.2 | 16.2 | 17.0 | 17.8 | 14.4 | 15.3 | 16.2 | 17.3 | 18.3 |
30–34 | 23.1 | 21.2 | 23.7 | 21.8 | 30.7 | 33.1 | 38.4 | 40.9 | 43.5 | 46.2 | 48.9 | 31.9 | 34.5 | 37.5 | 40.6 | 43.9 |
35–39 | 62.8 | 50.3 | 55.8 | 48.6 | 69.9 | 81.4 | 75.7 | 81.0 | 86.4 | 92.0 | 97.6 | 74.3 | 78.9 | 83.8 | 89.0 | 94.4 |
40–44 | 72.2 | 70.5 | 80.4 | 74.5 | 99.1 | 134.0 | 119.3 | 127.8 | 136.7 | 145.7 | 154.9 | 129.5 | 146.0 | 164.6 | 185.6 | 209.3 |
45–49 | 90.6 | 90.9 | 100.8 | 95.9 | 121.8 | 154.2 | 159.5 | 171.1 | 182.8 | 194.7 | 206.8 | 146.7 | 162.1 | 179.2 | 198.0 | 218.9 |
50–54 | 102.7 | 114.2 | 117.7 | 108.0 | 143.8 | 169.4 | 187.7 | 201.0 | 214.4 | 228.0 | 241.6 | 154.9 | 167.9 | 181.9 | 197.0 | 213.5 |
55–59 | 94.7 | 105.5 | 130.5 | 103.7 | 149.0 | 186.6 | 198.3 | 211.8 | 225.3 | 238.8 | 252.2 | 189.3 | 213.4 | 240.7 | 271.4 | 306.0 |
60–64 | 114.8 | 122.8 | 155.3 | 141.9 | 156.6 | 202.1 | 191.3 | 203.6 | 215.7 | 227.8 | 239.7 | 206.1 | 227.8 | 251.7 | 278.2 | 307.5 |
65–69 | 107.1 | 109.6 | 111.4 | 88.8 | 116.2 | 156.5 | 170.9 | 180.9 | 190.8 | 200.6 | 210.2 | 139.5 | 148.2 | 157.3 | 167.1 | 177.4 |
70–74 | 95.1 | 99.5 | 99.2 | 129.4 | 155.7 | 152.8 | 142.9 | 150.4 | 157.8 | 164.8 | 171.9 | 177.1 | 198.8 | 223.3 | 250.8 | 281.6 |
75 & above | 23.6 | 61.3 | 72.4 | 109.6 | 85.7 | 113.8 | 124.7 | 130.9 | 136.7 | 142.4 | 148.0 | 150.4 | 185.2 | 228.0 | 280.8 | 345.7 |