Raising cigarette excise tax to reduce consumption in low-and middle-income countries of the Asia-Pacific region:a simulation of the anticipated health and taxation revenues impacts

Ho, Li-Ming; Schafferer, Christian; Lee, Jie-Min; Yeh, Chun-Yuan; Hsieh, Chi-Jung

doi:10.1186/s12889-018-6096-z

Table 3 Impact of real retail cigarette price increases in 22 Asia- Pacific countries between 1999 and 2015 on cigarette consumption per capita, tax revenue, reduction in no. of smokers and reduction in smoking-attributable deaths

From: Raising cigarette excise tax to reduce consumption in low-and middle-income countries of the Asia-Pacific region:a simulation of the anticipated health and taxation revenues impacts

Countries	Annual max and mean increase % in real retail cigarette price		Annual max and mean decrease % in per capita cigarette consumption		Annual max and mean increase % in cigarette tax revenue		Reduction in no. of smokers due to cigarette price increase		Max and mean reduction in SADs
Countries	Max (%)	Mean (%)	Max (%)	Mean (%)	Max (%)	Mean (%)	Max	Mean	Max	Mean
	Low and lower middle income
GNI≦US$999
Cambodia	26.52	6.46	−0.98	−0.24	198.71	48.77	−19,105	− 4654	− 4983	− 1214
Nepal	25.86	10.71	−0.96	− 0.40	156.27	65.09	−47,965	− 19,865	− 12,974	− 5373
Bangladesh	17.11	8.72	−0.63	−0.32	27.24	13.93	−160,793	−81,947	−46,839	−23,871
Myanmar	88.48	20.05	−3.27	−0.74	167.89	39.06	− 316,592	−71,741	−93,553	−21,200
US$1000≦GNI≦US$1999
India	23.28	11.74	−3.40	−1.71	48.03	24.67	−4,028,113	−2,031,359	−1,213,670	−612,049
Laos	21.01	8.85	−3.07	−1.29	262.11	112.45	−49,408	−20,812	−12,382	− 5216
Vietnam	28.55	6.34	−4.17	−0.93	80.02	18.40	−544,700	−120,960	− 166,079	−36,881
Bhutan	27.15	10.17	−3.96	−1.48	–	–	− 6202	− 2323	− 1738	− 651
Papua New Guinea	34.56	12.73	−5.05	−1.86	119.16	45.43	−62,714	−23,100	−16,569	− 6103
Solomon Islands	39.13	14.46	−5.71	−2.11	186.95	71.80	− 3915	− 1447	− 1001	− 370
US$2000≦GNI≦US$2999
Indonesia	26.77	9.68	−13.06	−4.72	38.65	15.77	−7,242,053	−2,618,718	−2,303,697	−833,014
Mongolia	31.28	8.65	−15.26	−4.22	66.90	21.46	−78,062	−21,587	−21,569	− 5964
Sri Lanka	19.99	10.14	−9.76	−4.95	18.85	10.33	−199,680	−101,288	−71,206	−36,119
Vanuatu	15.38	7.02	−7.51	−3.43	24.51	11.83	− 1921	− 877	− 500	− 228
US$3000≦GNI≦US$3999
Philippines	30.18	7.22	−8.06	−1.93	35.61	9.21	−1,088,283	− 260,351	− 294,598	− 70,477
Samoa	17.29	8.20	−4.62	−2.19	34.35	16.76	− 2048	− 972	− 584	− 277
Tonga	39.64	10.13	−10.58	−2.70	49.68	14.05	− 2558	−654	− 747	− 191
	Upper middle income
US$4000≦GNI≦US$5999
Fiji	24.99	6.58	−15.34	−4.04	52.79	16.30	−10,603	− 2792	− 3342	− 880
Maldives	34.69	9.01	−21.30	−5.53	–	–	−13,551	− 3520	− 3366	− 874
Thailand	12.44	5.18	−7.64	−3.18	9.62	4.35	− 693,909	− 288,943	−256,608	−106,851
GNI > US$6000
China	50.96	9.45	−66.45	−12.32	−9.27	15.39	−232,702,235	−43,152,200	−86,472,151	−16,035,358
Malaysia	17.04	7.68	−22.22	−10.01	3.97	3.64	−1,152,312	− 519,352	− 357,217	− 160,999
All 22 Asia Pacific region	29.65	9.51	−11.09	−3.56	63.58	16.20	−248,426,711	−49,349,461	−91,355,371	−17,964,159

SADs: smoking-attributable death. The number of SADs averted was calculated according to Goodchild et al. [14]: Reduction in SADs = Reduction in no. of smokers multiplied by the corresponding mortality adjustment factor

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