Table 3 Detection metrics. Mean probability of detection (P D ), median days to detection (T D ) and thousand symptomatic people (Sym) at median time to detection per syndromic surveillance system and outbreak size under the current coverage and a hypothetical 100% coverage for each syndromic surveillance system
Estimated current coverage | Hypothetical 100% coverage | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Size 1 | Size2 | Size 3 | Size 1 | Size2 | Size 3 | ||||||||||||||
System-indicator | Coverage (%) | P D | T D | Sym | P D | T D | Sym | P D | T D | Sym | P D | T D | Sym | P D | T D | Sym | P D | T D | Sym |
Influenza | |||||||||||||||||||
EDSSS-influenza like illness | 7 | 1.00 | 158 | 105.6 | 1.00 | 87 | 110.9 | 1.00 | 64 | 115.0 | 1.00 | 97 | 7.4 | 1.00 | 56 | 7.8 | 1.00 | 42 | 8.1 |
(81–248) | (44–136) | (32–99) | (52–161) | (31–91) | (23–68) | ||||||||||||||
GPIHSS-influenza like illness | 64 | 1.00 | 102 | 9.4 | 1.00 | 61 | 12.6 | 1.00 | 47 | 14.2 | 1.00 | 93 | 6.1 | 1.00 | 56 | 8.1 | 1.00 | 43 | 9.1 |
(56–162) | (33–96) | (25–73) | (51–148) | (31–89) | (23–68) | ||||||||||||||
GPOOHSS-influenza like illness | 65 | 1.00 | 146 | 53.4 | 1.00 | 81 | 59.5 | 1.00 | 59 | 63.3 | 1.00 | 136 | 34.7 | 1.00 | 76 | 38.7 | 1.00 | 56 | 41.1 |
(74–222) | (41–124) | (30–91) | (70–208) | (39–116) | (29–86) | ||||||||||||||
NHS-111 cold-flu | 100 | 1.00 | 140 | 72.0 | 1.00 | 79 | 79.6 | 1.00 | 58 | 84.0 | 1.00 | 140 | 72.0 | 1.00 | 79 | 79.6 | 1.00 | 58 | 84.0 |
(76–232) | (42–128) | (30–94) | (76–232) | (42–128) | (30–94) | ||||||||||||||
Cryptosporidiosis (Location A) | |||||||||||||||||||
EDSSS diarrhoea | 15 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - |
GPIHSS diarrhoea | 64 | 0.14 | - | - | 0.24 | - | - | 0.84 | 8 | 4.4 | 0.25 | - | - | 0.39 | - | - | 0.92 | 6 | 3.6 |
(2–33) | (2–24) | ||||||||||||||||||
GPOOHSS diarrhoea | 65 | 0.18 | - | - | 0.33 | - | - | 0.95 | 4 | 2.4 | 0.34 | - | - | 0.51 | 7 | 0.9 | 0.99 | 3 | 1.8 |
(2–11) | (3–20) | (1–9) | |||||||||||||||||
NHS-111 diarrhoea | 100 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.52 | 7 | 5.7 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.52 | 7 | 5.7 |
(3–21) | (3–21) | ||||||||||||||||||
Cryptosporidiosis (Location B) | |||||||||||||||||||
EDSSS diarrhoea | 23 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - |
GPIHSS diarrhoea | 95 | 0.63 | 10 | 0.4 | 0.76 | 7 | 0.6 | 1.00 | 3 | 1.4 | 0.65 | 9 | 0.4 | 0.77 | 7 | 0.6 | 1.00 | 3 | 1.4 |
(3–47) | (2–37) | (1–7) | (3–47) | (2–36) | (1–7) | ||||||||||||||
GPOOHSS diarrhoea | 7 | 0.05 | - | - | 0.12 | - | - | 0.83 | 4 | 3.4 | 0.93 | 4 | 0.2 | 0.97 | 3 | 0.3 | 1.00 | 2 | 0.6 |
(2–12) | (2–10) | (2–8) | (1–3) | ||||||||||||||||
NHS-111 diarrhoea | 100 | 0.10 | - | - | 0.23 | - | - | 0.89 | 4 | 3.2 | 0.10 | - | - | 0.23 | - | - | 0.89 | 4 | 3.2 |
(2–13) | (2–13) | ||||||||||||||||||
Cryptosporidiosis (Location C) | |||||||||||||||||||
EDSSS diarrhoea | 47 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | - | - |
GPIHSS diarrhoea | 86 | 0.62 | 12 | 0.4 | 0.74 | 9 | 0.6 | 0.99 | 3 | 1.7 | 0.67 | 11 | 0.4 | 0.78 | 9 | 0.6 | 1.00 | 3 | 1.5 |
(3–53) | (3–47) | (1–9) | (3–51) | (3–41) | (1–8) | ||||||||||||||
GPOOHSS diarrhoea | 33 | 0.44 | - | - | 0.61 | 6 | 0.8 | 0.99 | 3 | 1.7 | 0.85 | 5 | 0.4 | 0.94 | 4 | 0.4 | 1.00 | 2 | 0.8 |
(3–17) | (1–8) | (2–13) | (2–11) | (1–4) | |||||||||||||||
NHS-111 diarrhoea | 100 | 0.06 | - | - | 0.18 | - | - | 0.86 | 4 | 3.3 | 0.06 | - | - | 0.18 | - | - | 0.86 | 4 | 3.3 |
(2–14) | (2–14) | ||||||||||||||||||