Fig. 2

Mortality trends relative to year of first Global Fund disbursements among eligible countries, divided into tertiles of per capita disbursements: a all-cause adult mortality, b all-cause under-five mortality, and c malaria-specific under-five mortality. The mortality rate of each country is presented as the difference between the country’s year-specific mortality and its mean mortality between 1995 and 2010 (de-meaned). Each funding group’s mortality rate is the average of the de-meaned values for all countries within the group, thus removing from the graphs the large mortality level differences between groups that persisted throughout the time period evaluated (see Table 1), and approximating the fixed-effects regression. For each country, Year 0 represents the first year of support from the Global Fund