Patterns of coronary heart disease mortality over the 20th century in England and Wales: Possible plateaus in the rate of decline

Allender, Steven; Scarborough, Peter; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon

doi:10.1186/1471-2458-8-148

Table 2 Coronary heart disease deaths, mortality rate, rate ratio and 95% confidence intervals for rate ratios by sex, age and birth cohort

From: Patterns of coronary heart disease mortality over the 20^th century in England and Wales: Possible plateaus in the rate of decline

Men	30–34	35–39	40–44	45–49	50–54	55–59	60–64	65–69
Deaths
1895–1904	162	851	3113	10759	28186	55648	92238	127362
1905–1914	306	1757	7127	19881	43720	77885	115431	150718
1915–1924	955	3943	11902	28017	51781	78397	106744	128117
1925–1934	1461	5170	13436	26591	43228	58544	72621	81940
Population (000s)
1895–1904	1669	1566	1598	1587	1524	1435	1292	1091
1905–1914	1683	1693	1688	1626	1562	1480	1337	1142
1915–1924	1728	1705	1696	1657	1602	1511	1383	1214
1925–1934	1533	1545	1523	1490	1436	1364	1259	1117
Mortality rate per 100,000
1895–1904	10	54	195	678	1850	3877	7139	11670
1905–1914	18	104	422	1223	2799	5264	8634	13201
1915–1924	55	231	702	1690	3232	5190	7719	10557
1925–1934	95	335	882	1785	3011	4293	5770	7334
95% CI mortality rate per 100,000
1895–1904	(8, 11)	(51, 58)	(188, 202)	(665, 691)	(1828, 1872)	(3846, 3909)	(7094, 7183)	(11609, 11730)
1905–1914	(16, 20)	(99, 109)	(412, 432)	(1206, 1240)	(2773, 2825)	(5228, 5300)	(8586, 8681)	(13139, 13263)
1915–1924	(52, 59)	(224, 239)	(689, 714)	(1671, 1710)	(3205, 3260)	(5155, 5226)	(7675, 7764)	(10502, 10611)
1925–1934	(90, 100)	(326, 344)	(867, 897)	(1764, 1806)	(2983, 3039)	(4259, 4327)	(5730, 5811)	(7285, 7382)
Rate ratio
1895–1904	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
1905–1914	1.9	1.9	2.2	1.8	1.5	1.4	1.2	1.1
1915–1924	5.7	4.3	3.6	2.5	1.7	1.3	1.1	0.9
1925–1934	9.8	6.2	4.5	2.6	1.6	1.1	0.8	0.6
95% CI rate ratio
1895–1904	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1905–1914	(1.7, 2.1)	(1.8, 2.0)	(2.1, 2.2)	(1.8, 1.8)	(1.5, 1.5)	(1.3, 1.4)	(1.2, 1.2)	(1.1, 1.1)
1915–1924	(5.3, 6.1)	(4.1, 4.4)	(3.5, 3.7)	(2.5, 2.5)	(1.7, 1.8)	(1.3, 1.3)	(1.1, 1.1)	(0.9, 0.9)
1925–1934	(9.3, 10.3)	(6.0, 6.3)	(4.5, 4.6)	(2.6, 2.7)	(1.6, 1.6)	(1.1, 1.1)	(0.8, 0.8)	(0.6, 0.6)
Women	30–34	35–39	40–44	45–49	50–54	55–59	60–64	65–69
Deaths
1895–1904	66	264	615	1938	5513	14124	32942	62900
1905–1914	110	317	1006	3082	7750	18683	39662	69061
1915–1924	158	485	1700	4250	9835	20067	37440	59255
1925–1934	233	741	2180	4437	8624	15657	25687	35007
Population (000s)
1895–1904	1739	1709	1669	1648	1607	1554	1480	1366
1905–1914	1773	1750	1710	1670	1640	1595	1516	1394
1915–1924	1756	1752	1722	1702	1665	1609	1534	1430
1925–1934	1541	1539	1527	1503	1466	1419	1359	1270
Mortality rate per 100,000
1895–1904	4	15	37	118	343	909	2226	4603
1905–1914	6	18	59	185	473	1172	2616	4953
1915–1924	9	28	99	250	591	1247	2441	4143
1925–1934	15	48	143	295	588	1103	1890	2757
95% CI mortality rate per 100,000
1895–1904	(3, 5)	(14, 17)	(34, 40)	(112, 123)	(334, 352)	(894, 924)	(2203, 2250)	(4568, 4639)
1905–1914	(5, 7)	(16, 20)	(55, 63)	(178, 191)	(462, 483)	(1155, 1188)	(2590, 2641)	(4917, 4989)
1915–1924	(8, 10)	(25, 30)	(94, 103)	(242, 257)	(579, 603)	(1230, 1264)	(2417, 2466)	(4110, 4176)
1925–1934	(13, 17)	(45, 52)	(137, 149)	(287, 304)	(576, 601)	(1086, 1120)	(1868, 1913)	(2729, 2786)
Rate ratio
1895–1904	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
1905–1914	1.6	1.2	1.6	1.6	1.4	1.3	1.2	1.1
1915–1924	2.4	1.8	2.7	2.1	1.7	1.4	1.1	0.9
1925–1934	4.0	3.1	3.9	2.5	1.7	1.2	0.8	0.6
95% CI rate ratio
1895–1904	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1905–1914	(1.3, 2.0)	(1.0, 1.3)	(1.5, 1.7)	(1.5, 1.6)	(1.3, 1.4)	(1.3, 1.3)	(1.2, 1.2)	(1.1, 1.1)
1915–1924	(2.0, 2.8)	(1.6, 2.0)	(2.6, 2.8)	(2.1, 2.2)	(1.7, 1.8)	(1.4, 1.4)	(1.1, 1.1)	(0.9, 0.9)
1925–1934	(3.5, 4.5)	(2.9, 3.4)	(3.7, 4.0)	(2.4, 2.6)	(1.7, 1.8)	(1.2, 1.2)	(0.8, 0.9)	(0.6, 0.6)

* Base for rate ratio is the age-stratified mortality rate for the 1895–1904 cohort.
† 95% confidence intervals constructed assuming Poisson distribution of death count variable (Altman, 2000)

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