Italy SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Italy

Table 6 Female smoking attributable deaths, SimSmoke Italy, 2010-2040

POLICIES	2010	2020	2030	2040	Cumulative
*Status Quo Policies*	18,433	24,390	28,632	29,488	783,587
*Independent Policy Effects*
Rolling Price Changes**	18,433	23,816	27,102	27,695	753,057
Complete Smoke Free Air Laws	18,433	24,370	28,578	29,429	782,486
Comprehensive Marketing Ban	18,433	24,326	28,465	29,305	780,155
High Intensity Tobacco Control Campaign	18,433	23,816	27,072	27,670	751,293
Strong Health Warnings	18,433	24,348	28,483	29,260	780,432
Strong Youth Access Enforcement	18,433	24,390	28,629	29,459	783,432
Cessation Treatment Policies	18,433	24,076	27,546	27,876	760,709
*Combined Policy Effects*
All above	18,433	22,849	24,189	23,890	692,046
*Absolute Change in Attributable Deaths from Status Quo*					2011-2040
*Independent Policy Effects*
Rolling Price Changes**		574	1,530	1,792	30,530
Complete Smoke Free Air Laws		21	54	59	1,100
Comprehensive Marketing Ban		65	167	182	3,432
High Intensity Tobacco Control Campaign		575	1,560	1,818	32,294
Strong Health Warnings		42	149	227	3,155
Strong Youth Access Enforcement		0	3	29	155
Cessation Treatment Policies		314	1,085	1,611	22,877
*Combined Policies*		1,541	4,442	5,598	91,541

** 25% change 2010–2011, 20% change 2011–2012, 15% change 2012–2013, 10% change 2013–2014, 5% change 2014–2015. Prices kept at 2015 level throughout the remaining projection period.

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