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Table 5 Summary of robustness analysis of main parameter changes Unit: year

From: The effect of the universal two-child policy on medical insurance funds with a rapidly ageing population: evidence from China’s urban and rural residents’ medical insurance

Changes

Time point of occurrence of deficit under the strict one-child policy

Universal two-child-

20%

Universal two-child-

40%

Universal two-child-

60%

Universal two-child-

80%

Universal two-child-

100%

Per capita financing

standard

+ 1%

Current deficit

2032

3

4

5

6

6

Accumulated deficit

2040

4

5

6

7

8

−1%

Current deficit

2021

0

0

0

0

0

Accumulated deficit

2021

0

0

0

0

0

Per capita

compensation expenditure

+ 1%

Current deficit

2021

0

0

0

0

0

Accumulated deficit

2024

0

0

0

0

0

−1%

Current deficit

2028

5

7

10

Accumulated deficit

2035

8

11

Bank interest rate

+ 1%

Current deficit

2021

1

1

1

1

2

Accumulated deficit

2027

1

1

2

2

2

−1%

Current deficit

2021

1

1

1

1

2

Accumulated deficit

2027

1

1

2

2

2

  1. Note: The numbers represent the change value, which appeared, when the occurrence time of the current deficit and accumulated deficit under certain circumstances compared with the occurrence time of deficit under the strict one-child policy. Moving backward is positive and moving forward is negative. “-” means that no funds deficit will occur during the forecast period