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Table 4 Forecasting cardiovascular deaths in Kenya

From: Cardiovascular disease (CVD): assessment, prediction and policy implications

Years

Original Data

NDGM

Cumulative

RGR

RGR Mean

Dt

Mean Dt

2005

28,096

28,096

28,096

    

2006

28,709

28,780

56,805

0.704

0.212

1.044

2.400

2007

29,283

29,338

86,088

0.416

 

1.571

 

2008

29,907

29,911

115,995

0.258

 

1.903

 

2009

30,578

30,500

146,574

0.224

 

2.146

 

2010

31,216

31,104

177,790

0.183

 

2.338

 

2011

31,891

31,724

209,681

0.155

 

2.495

 

2012

32,452

32,361

242,133

0.143

 

2.632

 

2013

32,895

33,015

275,029

0.127

 

2.754

 

2014

33,453

33,686

308,482

0.117

 

2.858

 

2015

34,203

34,375

342,686

0.105

 

2.946

 

2016

35,107

35,083

377,793

0.068

 

3.021

 

2017

35,992

35,809

413,786

0.041

 

3.090

 

2018

36,555

36,624

36,555

0.255

 

1.903

 

2019

37,321

37,652

73,876

0.324

 

2.014

 

2020

 

38,107

111,983

    

2021

 

38,914

150,897

0.119

0.261

1.751

2.190

2022

 

39,742

190,640

0.234

 

2.146

 

2023

 

40,593

231,234

0.193

 

2.338

 

2024

 

41,467

272,701

0.165

 

2.495

 

2025

 

42,363

315,065

0.244

 

2.628

 

2026

 

43,284

358,349

0.329

 

2.743

 

2027

 

44,229

402,579

0.206

 

2.844

 

MAPE %

 

1.9%

     
  1. Abbreviations: EGM even grey model, DGM discrete grey model, NDGM nonhomogeneous discrete grey model, RGR relative growth rate, Dt doubling time