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Table 3 Forecasting cardiovascular deaths in China

From: Cardiovascular disease (CVD): assessment, prediction and policy implications

Years

Original Data

NDGM

Cumulative

RGR

Mean RGR

Dt

Mean Dt

2005

3,123,852

3,123,852

3,123,852

    

2006

3,080,393

3,030,930

6,204,245

0.616

0.236

1.070

2.330

2007

3,126,022

3,171,122

9,330,267

0.408

 

1.590

 

2008

3,260,751

3,308,158

12,591,018

0.352

 

1.681

 

2009

3,440,057

3,442,107

16,031,075

0.242

 

2.104

 

2010

3,610,887

3,573,039

19,641,962

0.263

 

2.257

 

2011

3,744,796

3,701,023

23,386,759

0.165

 

2.459

 

2012

3,844,071

3,826,124

27,230,830

0.161

 

2.576

 

2013

3,872,996

3,948,408

31,103,826

0.153

 

2.651

 

2014

4,039,145

4,067,937

35,142,971

0.141

 

2.726

 

2015

4,221,832

4,184,775

39,364,803

0.133

 

2.862

 

2016

4,344,334

4,298,982

43,709,137

0.105

 

2.924

 

2017

4,377,972

4,410,616

48,087,109

0.095

 

3.062

 

2018

4,519,736

4,532,154

4,519,736

0.299

 

1.711

 

2019

4,626,399

4,678,514

9,146,135

0.168

 

0.524

 

2020

 

4,730,659

13,876,794

    

2021

 

4,832,572

18,709,366

0.524

0.275

1.240

2.117

2022

 

4,932,189

23,641,555

0.334

 

2.146

 

2023

 

5,029,563

28,671,118

0.193

 

2.315

 

2024

 

5,124,744

33,795,862

0.284

 

2.451

 

2025

 

5,217,781

39,013,642

0.174

 

2.514

 

2026

 

5,308,722

44,322,365

0.258

 

2.612

 

2027

 

5,397,616

49,719,981

0.215

 

2.701

 

MAPE %

 

4.15%

     
  1. Abbreviations: EGM even grey model, DGM discrete grey model, NDGM nonhomogeneous discrete grey model, RGR relative growth rate, Dt doubling time