Table 1 Research questions and Evaluation Criteria
no | Research Question (RQ) | Evaluation Criteria (C) |
|---|---|---|
1 | The predicted cases show a strong correlation with the real cases | c1-Correlation: The correlation between measles cases and predicted cases must exceed 0.650 and must also be statistically significant. The significance level (p) was set to be < 0.01 in two-tailed significance |
2 | The prediction shows the right time of measles’ outbreaks | c2-Time: The prediction point of measles outbreaks must not exceed one month in relation to the real cases and must not be observed after the outbreak |
3 | The predicted value of outbreaks is close to the real cases | c3-Volume of predicted cases during outbreak periods: must not exceed 28% of the real cases during outbreaks |
4 | The prediction includes all periods with excessive activity of measles (outbreaks) | c4-Outbreak predicted periods: the distributions of each prediction must include all outbreak periods within the 5-year examined period |
5 | The error of the estimate (MSE%) is smaller than 28% | c5-Mean Standard Error (MSE): the MSE of all predicted cases must not exceed 28% of the real cases mean |