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Table 5 Projected number of patients 2060 in the different scenarios

From: Healing, surviving, or dying? – projecting the German future disease burden using a Markov illness-death model

 

Number of patients P (million) in 2060

Expansion 1

Expansion 2

Compression 1

Compression 2

Extended Recovery

Prevention

 

2018

2040

2060

2040

2060

2040

2060

2040

2060

2040

2060

2040

2060

Arthrosis

11.1

15.7

15.0

16.7

17.1

15.1

13.5

15.3

14.1

15.3

14.0

13.5

11.8

  

(16.1)

(16.5)

(17.0)

(18.8)

(15.5)

(14.9)

(15.6)

(15.3)

(15.7)

(15.4)

(13.7)

(12.9)

CA

0.16

0.22

0.20

0.25

0.26

0.22

0.19

0.21

0.17

0.22

0.20

0.16

0.14

  

(0.22)

(0.22)

(0.25)

(0.28)

(0.22)

(0.21)

(0.21)

(0.19)

(0.22)

(0.21)

(0.16)

(0.15)

CHD

4.9

6.4

6.3

6.9

7.4

6.0

5.5

6.1

5.6

6.2

6.0

5.2

4.7

  

(6.4)

(6.7)

(6.9)

(7.9)

(6.1)

(5.9)

(6.1)

(5.9)

(6.3)

(6.4)

(5.2)

(5.0)

COPD

3.4

4.9

4.7

5.3

5.6

4.7

4.2

4.7

4.3

4.7

4.3

4.0

3.4

  

(5.0)

(5.1)

(5.4)

(6.1)

(4.8)

(4.6)

(4.8)

(4.7)

(4.8)

(4.7)

(4.1)

(3.7)

CVD

3.8

5.8

5.8

6.3

6.9

5.5

5.2

5.5

5.1

5.6

5.3

4.6

4.3

  

(5.9)

(6.2)

(6.4)

(7.4)

(5.6)

(5.5)

(5.5)

(5.4)

(5.7)

(5.7)

(4.7)

(4.5)

Dementia

1.7

2.6

2.9

2.9

3.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.8

2.0

2.1

  

(2.6)

(3.0)

(2.9)

(3.7)

(2.5)

(2.7)

(2.4)

(2.5)

(2.6)

(3.0)

(2.0)

(2.2)

Depression

10.3

10.6

9.5

11.3

11.1

10.3

8.8

10.5

9.1

10.1

8.2

9.1

7.3

  

(11.0)

(10.7)

(11.7)

(12.4)

(10.7)

(9.9)

(10.8)

(10.2)

(10.4)

(9.2)

(9.4)

(8.1)

Diabetes

9.2

10.1

9.5

10.7

11.0

9.7

8.5

9.9

8.9

10.0

9.2

8.7

7.3

  

(10.3)

(10.4)

(11.0)

(12.0)

(9.9)

(9.4)

(10.1)

(9.6)

(10.2)

(10.1)

(8.9)

(7.9)

Dorsal pain

23.5

29.4

27.4

30.7

30.3

28.6

25.7

29.0

26.6

28.5

25.1

26.1

22.7

  

(30.7)

(31.1)

(32.1)

(34.5)

(29.9)

(29.3)

(30.3)

(30.0)

(29.7)

(28.5)

(27.1)

(25.5)

HF

3.7

5.6

5.6

6.1

6.8

5.3

5.1

5.2

4.9

5.4

5.3

4.3

4.2

  

(5.6)

(6.0)

(6.2)

(7.2)

(5.4)

(5.4)

(5.3)

(5.2)

(5.5)

(5.6)

(4.4)

(4.4)

  1. Source: Own depiction
  2. Abbreviations: CA pulmonary, bronchial and tracheal cancer, CHD coronary heart disease, COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CVD cerebrovascular diseases, HF heart failure