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Table 4 Projected average prevalence rates apr 2060 and percentage change compared to 2018

From: Healing, surviving, or dying? – projecting the German future disease burden using a Markov illness-death model

 

apr

%change for different populations

2018

2060

Stationary population

(only epidemiology)

Population

(LE constant)

Expansion 1

Standard Population

(LE increasing)

Arthrosis

13.4%

22.7%

30.8%

56.0%

69.8%

CA

0.2%

0.3%

16.2%

42.2%

53.9%

CHD

5.9%

9.5%

5.0%

38.5%

60.4%

COPD

4.1%

7.1%

31.0%

56.2%

71.9%

CVD

4.6%

8.7%

22.7%

63.2%

89.9%

Dementia

2.0%

4.4%

8.1%

67.7%

117.9%

Depression

12.5%

14.4%

3.3%

10.1%

15.7%

Diabetes

11.1%

14.4%

0.3%

18.8%

29.7%

Dorsal pain

28.3%

41.4%

39.9%

43.4%

46.1%

HF

4.5%

8.5%

15.4%

60.3%

90.4%

  1. Source: Own depiction
  2. Abbreviations: CA pulmonary, bronchial and tracheal cancer, CHD coronary heart disease, COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CVD cerebrovascular diseases, HF heart failure