Healing, surviving, or dying? – projecting the German future disease burden using a Markov illness-death model

BMC Public Health

Table 2 Diseases and selection criteria

Disease	ICD-10	Validation criteria for outpatient diagnosis
Arthrosis	M15-M19	M2Q
Pulmonary, bronchial and tracheal cancer (CA)	C33, C34	M2Q
Coronary heart disease (CHD)	I20-I25	M3Q and prescription of at least 50 DDD of specific medication^a
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)	J44	M2Q
Cerebrovascular diseases (CVD)	I60-I69	M2Q
Dementia	F00-F03, F05.1, G23.1, G30, G31.0, G31.82	M2Q
Depression	Prevalence: F32, F33, F34.1 Incidence: only F32, not F33 (recurrent depressive disorders)	M2Q
Diabetes	E10-E14	M2Q or at least two prescriptions of antidiabetics/blood glucose test strips^b
Dorsal pain	M40-M54	M2Q
Heart failure (HF)	I50, I11.0, I13.0, I13.2	M3Q and prescription of at least 50 DDD of specific medication^c

Source: Own depiction using the ICD-10 classification system and according to the criteria published by AOK Research Institute [19,20,21,22]
^a ATC groups B01AC, C07, C01D, C08, C09A, C09BB, C09C, C09DB-
^b ATC groups A10A, A10B, A10X, V04CA03
^c ATC groups C09A, C09B, C07, C01A, C03, C08, C09C, C09D

ISSN: 1471-2458