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Table 1 Scenarios, assumptions and their effect on the future prevalence rate

From: Healing, surviving, or dying? – projecting the German future disease burden using a Markov illness-death model

  

Variables

Effect on dpT +1

Implementation

  

md

sr

i

r

  

Expansion 1 (Exp1)

Scenario

 

+

  

+

Increasing sra,g according to L2 scenario

Effect

 

+

  

Expansion 2 (Exp2)

Scenario

 

+

+

 

++

Increasing sra,g according to L2 scenario

Linearly increasing i of 30% until 2060

Effect

+

+

  

Compression 1 (Comp1)

Scenario

+

+

  

?

Increasing sra,g according to L2 scenario

Increasing mda,g corresponding to increasing sr

Effect

+

  

Compression 2 (Comp2)

Scenario

 

+

 

?

Increasing sra,g according to L2 scenario

Shift of ia,g corresponding to increasing sra,g resulting in a continuous decrease of i

Effect

 

+

 

Prevention (Prev)

Scenario

 

+

 

?

Increasing sra,g according to L2 scenario

Linearly decreasing ia,g of 30% until 2035

Effect

 

+

 

Extended Recovery (Rec)

Scenario

 

+

 

+

?

Increasing sra,g according to L2 scenario

Linearly increasing ra,g of 50% until 2060

Effect

 

+

 

  1. Source: Own depiction