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Table 1 US prevalence of PTLD for 3 scenarios for incidence and 2 failure rates based on a deterministic estimation and simulation. For the simulation, results are presented as the median and the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles as coverage intervals (CI) over 5000 runs

From: Estimation of cumulative number of post-treatment Lyme disease cases in the US, 2016 and 2020

Incidence Scenario Failure Rate 2016 2020
Deterministic Simulation Deterministic Simulation
A
  10% 68,603 69,011
(51,796 - 89,312)
81,713 81,509
(61,141 - 105,591)
20% 137,207 138,540
(114,456 - 164,408)
163,426 163,705
(135,095 - 193,979)
B
  10% 668,303 671,876
(511,989 - 866,523)
792,572 790,411
(601,992 - 1,017,496)
20% 1,336,607 1,351,180
(1,126,160 - 1,608,309)
1,585,145 1,590,259
(1,323,334 - 1,893,234)
C
  10% 754,468 758,776
(575,431 - 980,601)
969,020 967,822
(732,074 - 1,249,030)
20% 1,508,937 1,523,869
(1,268,634 - 1,809,416)
1,938,041 1,944,189
(1,619,988 - 2,304,147)