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Table 3 Impact of cigarette price increases by 10% on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and reduction in smoking-attributable deaths

From: The effects of a rise in cigarette price on cigarette consumption, tobacco taxation revenues, and of smoking-related deaths in 28 EU countries-- applying threshold regression modelling

Countries

Average real price per pack in 2015 (US$)

Increase in price due to price scenarios increase 10% (US$)

Estimated cigarette price elasticities

Change in cigarette consumption (%)

Change in cigarette consumption (million packs)

Change in cigarette tax revenue (%)

Change in cigarette tax revenue (million US$)

Reduction in no. of smokers due to price increases

Reduction in no. of SADsb

Regime1(GNIitUS$5418)

 Bulgaria, Romania

1.15

0.115

−1.227

−12.27

−230.15

−1.41

−14.4

588,614

251,860

Regime2 (US$5418 < GNIitUS$8385)

 Latvia, Poland

2.32

0.232

−0.829

−8.29

−206.84

3.15

139.5

489,546

210,061

Regime3 (GNIit > US$8385)

 EU24 countries (Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom)

4.63

0.463

−0.503

−5.03

−1019.48

7.03

6523

3,123,560

1,419,959

All EU28 countries

4.15

0.415

−0.587

−5.87

−1310.09

6.76

6644

4,201,720

1,879,880

  1. SADs smoking-attributable death
  2. aThe reduction in the number of smokers equals the reduction in cigarette consumption as a result of price increases multiplied by the number of adult smokers
  3. bThe number of SADs averted was calculated according to Goodchild et al. [6]: Reduction in SADs = Reduction in no. of smokers multiplied by the corresponding mortality adjustment factor