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Table 3 Spatiotemporal variation in diabetes mortality in China during 2006–2012

From: Spatiotemporal variation in diabetes mortality in China: multilevel evidence from 2006 and 2012

 

Model1 (time, age, gender)

Model2 (adding region, region*time)

Model3 (adding urbanization rate)

Model4 (adding behavior risk factors)

Model5 (adding metabolic risk factors)

Model6 (adding average temperature)

Fixed effects

Time(years)

0.98(0.97,0.99) *

0.98(0.97,0.99) *

0.98(0.97,1.00) *

0.98(0.97,1.00) *

0.98(0.97,1.00) *

0.98(0.97,1.00) *

Age (5 year groups)

1.64(1.64,1.65) *

1.64(1.64,1.65) *

1.64(1.63,1.65) *

1.64(1.63,1.65) *

1.64(1.63,1.65) *

1.64(1.63,1.65) *

Gender (ref: male)

1

1

1

1

1

1

female

1.06(1.03,1.08) *

1.05(1.03,1.08) *

1.06(1.03,1.08) *

1.06(1.03,1.08) *

1.06(1.03,1.08) *

1.05(1.03,1.08) *

Region(ref:south)

 

1

 

1

1

1

North

 

1.06(0.81,1.38)

1.11(0.86,1.43)

1.06(0.82,1.38)

0.96(0.70,1.31)

1.49(1.02,2.16) *

East

 

1.12(0.88,1.43)

1.14(0.90,1.46)

1.09(0.85,1.39)

1.10(0.85,1.41)

1.40(1.06,1.84) *

Central

 

1.24(0.95,1.62)

1.33(1.03,1.73) *

1.27(0.97,1.65)

1.22(0.93,1.59)

1.49(1.12,1.97) *

Southwest

 

0.95(0.73,1.23)

1.07(0.83,1.38)

1.15(0.90,1.48)

1.14(0.88,1.47)

1.43(1.08,1.88) *

Northwest

 

1.45(1.10,1.90) *

1.61(1.24,2.10) *

1.54(1.17,2.01) *

1.48(1.11,1.97) *

2.55(1.74,3.73) *

Northeast

 

1.42(1.07,1.87) *

1.51(1.16,1.97) *

1.50(1.13,1.99) *

1.39(1.00,1.92) *

2.68(1.70,4.21) *

Urbanization rate(ref:low)

  

1

1

1

1

Moderate

  

1.09(0.93,1.27)

1.14(0.98,1.33)

1.14(0.99,1.33)

1.11(0.97,1.29)

High

  

1.41(1.21,1.64) *

1.50(1.26,1.79) *

1.42(1.18,1.71) *

1.39(1.17,1.66) *

% smokers (ref: low)

   

1

1

1

Moderate

   

0.90(0.77,1.04)

0.94(0.80,1.11)

0.95(0.81,1.11)

High

   

0.90(0.77,1.06)

1.00(0.84,1.19)

1.02(0.86,1.21)

% over drinkers(ref:low)

   

1

1

1

Moderate

   

0.97(0.83,1.13)

0.93(0.80,1.08)

0.89(0.77,1.03)

High

   

0.87(0.74,1.03)

0.85(0.72,1.00)

0.84(0.72,0.99) *

% eat red meat(ref:low)

   

1

1

1

Moderate

   

0.91(0.79,1.06)

0.92(0.79,1.07)

0.91(0.79,1.06)

High

   

0.86(0.72,1.03)

0.88(0.74,1.06)

0.91(0.76,1.08)

Sedentary time(ref:low)

   

1

1

1

Moderate

   

1.06(0.92,1.22)

1.06(0.92,1.22)

1.05(0.92,1.20)

High

   

1.09(0.91,1.29)

1.04(0.87,1.24)

1.01(0.85,1.20)

Body mass index (ref: low)

    

1

1

Moderate

    

1.13(0.96,1.33)

1.22(1.04,1.43) *

High

    

1.23(1.00,1.51) *

1.46(1.18,1.80) *

SBP level(ref:low)

    

1

1

Moderate

    

0.93(0.79,1.10)

0.93(0.80,1.09)

High

    

0.95(0.78,1.15)

1.01(0.84,1.21)

Cholesterol level(ref:low)

    

1

1

Moderate

    

0.99(0.86,1.14)

0.99(0.86,1.13)

High

    

1.00(0.86,1.15)

0.97(0.84,1.12)

DM Prevalence(ref:low)

    

1

1

Moderate

    

1.08(0.92,1.27)

1.01(0.86,1.18)

High

    

1.07(0.89,1.29)

0.99(0.83,1.18)

Average temperature

     

1.05(1.03,1.08) *

Random effects

DSP intercept variance (standard error)

0.166(0.019) *

0.151(0.018) *

0.137(0.016) *

0.121(0.014) *

0.113(0.014) *

0.104(0.013) *

MRR

1.47

1.45

1.42

1.39

1.38

1.36

PCV

 

9 %

17 %

27 %

32 %

37 %

DSP slope variance by year (standard error)

0.006(0.001) *

0.007(0.001) *

0.006(0.001) *

0.006(0.001) *

0.006(0.001) *

0.006(0.001) *

Intercept/Slope Covariance

0.268 (0.007)

0.274 (0.007)

0.279 (0.007)

0.269 (0.007)

0.268 (0.007)

0.257(0.007)

  1. * p < 0.05, MRR Median Rate Ratio, PCV proportional change in variance (PCV) in model x compared to model 1
  2. DSP: counties (rural) and districts (urban)