Table 3 Estimated decontainment probability 
for different levels of ring vaccination capacity (K
r
) and relative hazard for infection due to workplace/social contacts (h
2), for different levels of the baseline hazard for infection from household contacts λ (based on replications of 100 simulations for each level). For each scenario, 10 index cases were introduced into a population of size 10000. All other parameters were the same as for Figure 3A. As before, we define decontainment to mean that the total number of cases from 10 index cases eventually exceeded 500 by day 250.
for different levels of ring vaccination capacity (K
r
) and relative hazard for infection due to workplace/social contacts (h
2), for different levels of the baseline hazard for infection from household contacts λ (based on replications of 100 simulations for each level). For each scenario, 10 index cases were introduced into a population of size 10000. All other parameters were the same as for Figure 3A. As before, we define decontainment to mean that the total number of cases from 10 index cases eventually exceeded 500 by day 250.Relative hazard for workplace or social contacts | Ring vaccinations per day | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
10 | 20 | |||
λ |
| λ |
| |
1/3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
0.75 | 0.02 | 0.75 | 0 | |
1 | 0.26 | 1 | 0 | |
1.25 | 0.73 | 1.25 | 0 | |
1.5 | 0.96 | 1.5 | 0.02 | |
2 | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | |
λ |
| λ |
| |
2/3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
0.75 | 0.46 | 0.75 | 0 | |
1 | 0.82 | 1 | 0.02 | |
1.25 | 1 | 1.25 | 0.11 | |
1.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 0.26 | |
2 | 1 | 2 | 0.49 | |
λ |
| λ |
| |
1 | 0.5 | 0.14 | 0.5 | 0 |
0.75 | 0.86 | 0.75 | 0 | |
1 | 0.99 | 1 | 0.07 | |
1.25 | 1 | 1.25 | 0.22 | |
1.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 0.49 | |
2 | 1 | 2 | 0.85 | |