Figure 8

Transmission prior to the rash makes epidemic control more difficult. The figure shows a expanding smallpox epidemic assuming differing levels of infectivity prior to the rash. We assume all parameters are the same as in Figure 3A (and that the ring vaccination capacity is 40 per day). Infectivity prior to the rash is modeled as the relative infectivity during the short (1 day) period of oropharyngeal lesions just prior to the rash (compared to the infectivity during the first week of the rash), and as the relative infectivity during the prodromal period (relative to the period just prior to the rash). For scenario a, relative infectivity during the prodromal period and just prior to the rash is the same as during the first week of the rash, for scenario b, the relative infectivity just prior to the rash is the same as during the first week of the rash, but during the prodromal period is 4% (as in Figure 3A) of this value, and for scenario c, the relative infectivity just prior to the rash is 20% of the infectivity during the first week of the rash, and during the prodromal period is 20% of this value (these two parameters are the same as in Figure 3A).