Figure 5

5A - The mean containment probability increases as the number of ring vaccinations per day is increased. For this figure, the 1000 "calibrated" parameter sets were chosen, and for each parameter set, 100 realizations were simulated and the fraction of these for which the epidemic was contained to fewer than 500 cases was determined. The average of these 1000 containment fractions is plotted on the vertical axis. We assumed a household contact finding probability of 95% and that the diagnosis rates double after community awareness of the epidemic. We considered high levels of workplace/social (w/s) contact finding (0.9), as well as moderate levels (0.8). We also considered two levels of diagnosis of smallpox among investigated (alerted) contacts: high levels (corresponding to a 3 hour mean delay, indicated by "high contact isolation"), and moderate levels (corresponding to a one day delay, and indicated by "less contact isolation"). The figure shows four such conditions, a. high workplace/social contact finding probability and high contact isolation, b. moderate workplace/social contact finding probability and high contact isolation, c. high workplace/social contact finding probability and less contact isolation, and d. moderate workplace/social contact finding probability and less contact isolation. All other parameter values were chosen from the uncertainty analysis (the 1000 "calibrated" parameter sets). In this figure, "contact isolation" refers to the monitored diagnosis rate, i.e. the rate at which previously asymptomatic contacts who subsequently develop disease will be diagnosed (φ, Table 1, Table 8).

5B - The minimum containment probability out of the same 1000 scenarios chosen in Figure 5A. Whereas in Figure 5A, we averaged the simulated containment frequency (out of 100 realizations for each scenario), in this figure we determined which of the 1000 scenarios led to the lowest containment frequency, and we plotted this single worst (out of 1000) containment frequency, at different levels of ring vaccination capacity, for the same four conditions as in Figure 5A: a. high workplace/social contact finding probability (0.9) and high contact isolation (effective 3 hour delay following symptoms), b. moderate workplace/social contact finding probability (0.8) and high contact isolation, c. high workplace/social contact finding probability (0.9) and less contact isolation (effective one day delay), and d. moderate workplace/social contact finding probability (0.8) and less contact isolation. All parameters are the same as in Figure 5A (the household contact finding probability is 0.95 for all scenarios, and the diagnosis rates are doubled after the onset of community awareness). In this figure, "contact isolation" refers to the monitored diagnosis rate, i.e. the rate at which previously asymptomatic contacts who subsequently develop disease will be diagnosed (φ, Table 1, Table 8).