Figure 3

3A - Expanding severe smallpox epidemic beginning with 10 initial cases, assuming 0, 10, 20, 30, and 40 possible ring vaccinations per day. The household size is 4 and the workplace/social group size is 8; we assume 95% of household contacts are traceable (with a mean delay of 1 day) and 80% of workplace/social contacts are traceable (with a mean delay of 2 days). We also assume that 25% of the population have 50% protection from infection resulting from vaccination prior to the discontinuation of routine vaccination. We assume that infection will be transmitted to close contacts with a mean time of 0.2 days, and that each person while infective causes on average 0.15 casual (untraceable) infections per day. We assume that individuals are 20% as infectious in the day just before the appearance of the rash as they will be during the first week of the rash, and that individuals are 20% as infectious as this (4% as infectious as during the first week of the rash) during the prodromal period. We assume that diagnosis rates will increase by a factor of 50% after smallpox becomes known to the community; we assume that each individual contacted during an investigation has a additional diagnosis or removal rate of 0.75 per day following the onset of symptoms (reflecting enhanced surveillance or contact isolation). Important parameters are summarized in Table 1; the full set of parameter choices is outlined in Tables 8-11 in Appendix 2 [see additional file 2]. Diagnosis times are discussed in Appendix 2 [see additional file 2].

3B - An expanding severe smallpox epidemic under inadequate ring vaccination is shown for parameters identical to Figure 3A, except that workplace/social group sizes are 12 (instead of 8), and the probability of tracing workplace/social contacts is 0.6 (instead of 0.8).

3C - A severe smallpox epidemic is controlledby ring vaccination despite the large number of initial cases. The parameters are identical to Figure 3A, except that 1000 index cases inaugurate the attack in these scenarios (and ring vaccination capacity is much greater, as indicated). While not recommended, ring vaccination may ultimately halt epidemics beginning with many index cases if sufficient vaccination capacity were available, contact finding feasible, and follow-up sufficient.

3D - Tracing contacts of contacts (red) is beneficial when sufficient contact tracing/ring vaccination capacity exists (dotted lines). In these scenarios, all parameters are the same as in Figure 3A; the number of contact tracings possible per day is either 20 or 40 per day. Contacts of contacts are traced in two scenarios; in the other two, only direct contacts of cases are traced. For low levels of ring vaccination (20 per day), tracing contacts of contacts is harmful; for high levels (40 per day) of ring vaccination, it is beneficial to trace contacts of contacts. When the contact tracing/ring vaccination capacity is too small to adequately cover contacts of the cases themselves, diversion of resources to contacts of contacts is harmful; however, provided that sufficient capacity exists, tracing contacts of contacts helps outrun the chain of transmission. Each line corresponds to the average of 100 realizations.