Figure 10

Mass and ring vaccination together. Low-level mass vaccination programs are improved substantially by the addition of ring vaccination. The shaded pie segments represent the fraction of 1000 scenarios for which containment (as defined in the text) was never realized; the vertical position of the pie chart represents the fraction of the 1000 "calibrated" scenarios for which containment was always achieved. As the fraction of the population mass vaccinated increases or the ring vaccination capacity increases, the probability of containment increases.