Reactive strategies for containing developing outbreaks of pandemic influenza

BMC Public Health

Table 4 Average overall illness attack rates and total costs of interventions with 70% vaccination coverage

Intervention¹	Delay in Initiation of Vaccination²	No Post-initiation Vaccination Delays		Post-initiation Vaccination Delays³
		Attack Rate (%)	Cost (US$m)	Attack Rate (%)	Cost (US$m)
V_L	Pre-vaccination	12.0	47.0
V_L	Reactive, no delay	22.2	71.1	22.4	71.6
V_L	30-day delay	22.7	72.4	24.1	75.7
V_L	60-day delay	27.1	83.0	30.4	89.4
V_M	Pre-vaccination	0.2	19.3
V_M	Reactive, no delay	2.2	25.6	4.6	29.7
V_M	30-day delay	8.1	39.5	13.3	50.2
V_M	60-day delay	22.6	74.0	27.6	83.0
V_L+A	Pre-vaccination	3.3	28.3
V_L+A	Reactive, no delay	17.3	61.1	17.7	62.0
V_L+A	30-day delay	17.9	62.5	18.4	63.9
V_L+A	60-day delay	19.9	67.4	22.0	72.4
V_M+A	Pre-vaccination	0.1	20.7
V_M+A	Reactive, no delay	0.6	22.0	1.2	23.3
V_M+A	30-day delay	2.4	26.2	4.4	30.9
V_M+A	60-day delay	6.6	36.1	12.2	49.1
V_L+S	Pre-vaccination	0.7	22.0
V_L+S	Reactive, no delay	5.9	46.0	7.5	53.1
V_L+S	30-day delay	9.5	63.0	11.0	70.6
V_L+S	60-day delay	13.3	82.6	15.4	96.6
V_M+S	Pre-vaccination	0.04	19.1
V_M+S	Reactive, no delay	0.2	19.7	0.7	22.0
V_M+S	30-day delay	1.5	25.9	3.2	34.7
V_M+S	60-day delay	6.4	51.2	9.8	69.1
V_L+A+S	Pre-vaccination	0.2	21.3
V_L+A+S	Reactive, no delay	1.8	28.4	2.6	32.0
V_L+A+S	30-day delay	2.9	33.6	3.2	35.2
V_L+A+S	60-day delay	3.8	37.8	4.6	41.7
V_M+A+S	Pre-vaccination	0.02	20.6
V_M+A+S	Reactive, no delay	0.1	20.1	0.2	21.6
V_M+A+S	30-day delay	0.5	22.8	0.7	23.8
V_M+A+S	60-day delay	1.2	26.1	1.4	27.4

1. Abbreviations for modeled interventions: V (vaccination of up to 70% of the population), L (low efficacy), M (moderate efficacy), A (antiviral treatment and household prophylaxis of up to 10% of the population), S (school closure and social distancing).
2. Initial supply-chain delays which prevent immediate initiation of vaccination programs after the intervention trigger occurs.
3. Additional supply-chain delays, after initiation of the vaccination program, as a result of which vaccines become available in three equal batches, spaced two weeks apart

ISSN: 1471-2458