Rapid detection of pandemic influenza in the presence of seasonal influenza

BMC Public Health

Table 1 Summary of the performances of the three methods

Case reporting rate		WCR method	Threshold method	Mov-Avg Cusum method
		Specificity = 95%
0.5%	Sen	100	100	96
	MDT	5	5	6
1%	Sen	100	100	97
	MDT	4	5	5
5%	Sen	100	100	97
	MDT	3	4	4
		Specificity = 99%
0.5%	Sen	98	100	77
	MDT	5	6	6
1%	Sen	100	100	92
	MDT	5	5	6
5%	Sen	100	100	95
	MDT	4	4	5

The performances of the three methods compared in terms of sensitivity (Sen) and median detection time (MDT) for different values of pandemic case reporting rates and detection specificities of 95% and 99%. Sen is given as percentage (%) of the model runs summed across all 33 weeks, i.e. calculated from a set of 1800 overlaid time series times 33 weeks. MDT is in weeks and calculated from those of (1800 × 33) runs in which a given method was able to generate a detection alarm.

ISSN: 1471-2458